Early Signal | AI Portfolio

Run Detail: 82a31770

weekly completed manual 39s 2026-02-24T23:44

Summary

Num Recommendations
17
Risk Summary
{'total_positions': 17, 'high_conviction': 0, 'buys': 9, 'sells': 8}
Used Synthetic Data
False
Data Warnings
[]

Narrative

# Weekly AI Ecosystem Review - 2026-02-24

## Summary
- Total actionable positions: 17
- High conviction: 0
- Buy signals: 9
- Sell signals: 8

## Sector Rotation

| Layer | Direction |
|-------|-----------|
| Raw Materials & Components | NEUTRAL |
| Semiconductor Manufacturing | NEUTRAL |
| Chips & Accelerators | NEUTRAL |
| Infrastructure | NEUTRAL |
| Cloud & Compute Platforms | NEUTRAL |
| AI Platforms & Tools | NEUTRAL |
| Foundation Models & AI Services | NEUTRAL |
| AI Applications | NEUTRAL |
| AI-Enabled Transformation | NEUTRAL |
| Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries | NEUTRAL |

## Supply Chain Update
- HBM3e Supply (CRITICAL): SK Hynix and Micron ramping HBM3e; demand outstrips supply through 2026
- TSMC CoWoS Packaging (CRITICAL): CoWoS capacity expanding 2x by end-2026 but still constrained
- NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin GPUs (CRITICAL): Blackwell fully allocated; Rubin sampling mid-2026

## Recommendations

- [+] **LITE** (Lumentum): ADD | medium conviction | Signal: +0.33 | Infrastructure
- [-] **WDAY** (Workday): SELL | medium conviction | Signal: -0.29 | AI Applications
- [+] **MU** (Micron Technology): ADD | medium conviction | Signal: +0.26 | Chips & Accelerators
- [-] **DDOG** (Datadog): SELL | medium conviction | Signal: -0.25 | AI Platforms & Tools
- [-] **PANW** (Palo Alto Networks): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.23 | AI Applications
- [+] **CRDO** (Credo Technology): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.22 | Infrastructure
- [+] **COHR** (Coherent Corp): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.20 | Infrastructure
- [-] **MDB** (MongoDB): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.20 | AI Platforms & Tools
- [-] **ESTC** (Elastic NV): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.19 | AI Platforms & Tools
- [+] **GOOGL** (Alphabet (GCP)): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.18 | Cloud & Compute Platforms
- [-] **SNOW** (Snowflake): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.18 | AI Platforms & Tools
- [-] **CRM** (Salesforce (Einstein)): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.18 | AI Applications
- [+] **AVGO** (Broadcom): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.17 | Chips & Accelerators
- [+] **ANET** (Arista Networks): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.17 | Infrastructure
- [-] **AI** (C3.ai): SELL | low conviction | Signal: -0.16 | Foundation Models & AI Services
- [+] **AMKR** (Amkor Technology): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.16 | Semiconductor Manufacturing
- [+] **VRT** (Vertiv Holdings): ADD | low conviction | Signal: +0.15 | Infrastructure
LITE ADD
Lumentum
Signal: 0.326
Conviction: medium
Target Weight: 1.63%
Layer: Infrastructure
Sleeve: satellite
Urgency: THIS_WEEK
Medium bullish on Lumentum (Infrastructure, 30% AI revenue). Signal: +0.33.
Risk: Valuation compression
MU ADD
Micron Technology
Signal: 0.258
Conviction: medium
Target Weight: 1.29%
Layer: Chips & Accelerators
Sleeve: satellite
Urgency: THIS_WEEK
Medium bullish on Micron Technology (Chips & Accelerators, 35% AI revenue). Signal: +0.26.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
CRDO ADD
Credo Technology
Signal: 0.222
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 1.11%
Layer: Infrastructure
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Credo Technology (Infrastructure, 70% AI revenue). Signal: +0.22.
Risk: Valuation compression
COHR ADD
Coherent Corp
Signal: 0.201
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 1.00%
Layer: Infrastructure
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Coherent Corp (Infrastructure, 40% AI revenue). Signal: +0.20.
Risk: Valuation compression
GOOGL ADD
Alphabet (GCP)
Signal: 0.182
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.91%
Layer: Cloud & Compute Platforms
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Alphabet (GCP) (Cloud & Compute Platforms, 25% AI revenue). Signal: +0.18.
Risk: Valuation compression
AVGO ADD
Broadcom
Signal: 0.173
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.87%
Layer: Chips & Accelerators
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Broadcom (Chips & Accelerators, 40% AI revenue). Signal: +0.17.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
ANET ADD
Arista Networks
Signal: 0.167
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.83%
Layer: Infrastructure
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Arista Networks (Infrastructure, 55% AI revenue). Signal: +0.17.
Risk: Valuation compression
AMKR ADD
Amkor Technology
Signal: 0.158
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.79%
Layer: Semiconductor Manufacturing
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Amkor Technology (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 45% AI revenue). Signal: +0.16.
Risk: Supply chain cyclicality
VRT ADD
Vertiv Holdings
Signal: 0.153
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.76%
Layer: Infrastructure
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bullish on Vertiv Holdings (Infrastructure, 60% AI revenue). Signal: +0.15.
Risk: Valuation compression
AI SELL
C3.ai
Signal: -0.163
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.82%
Layer: Foundation Models & AI Services
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on C3.ai (Foundation Models & AI Services, 90% AI revenue). Signal: -0.16.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
CRM SELL
Salesforce (Einstein)
Signal: -0.178
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.89%
Layer: AI Applications
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on Salesforce (Einstein) (AI Applications, 20% AI revenue). Signal: -0.18.
Risk: Valuation compression
SNOW SELL
Snowflake
Signal: -0.179
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.89%
Layer: AI Platforms & Tools
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on Snowflake (AI Platforms & Tools, 35% AI revenue). Signal: -0.18.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
ESTC SELL
Elastic NV
Signal: -0.190
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.95%
Layer: AI Platforms & Tools
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on Elastic NV (AI Platforms & Tools, 25% AI revenue). Signal: -0.19.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
MDB SELL
MongoDB
Signal: -0.197
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 0.99%
Layer: AI Platforms & Tools
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on MongoDB (AI Platforms & Tools, 30% AI revenue). Signal: -0.20.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
PANW SELL
Palo Alto Networks
Signal: -0.231
Conviction: low
Target Weight: 1.16%
Layer: AI Applications
Sleeve: tactical
Urgency: OPPORTUNISTIC
Low bearish on Palo Alto Networks (AI Applications, 30% AI revenue). Signal: -0.23.
Risk: Valuation compression
DDOG SELL
Datadog
Signal: -0.253
Conviction: medium
Target Weight: 1.27%
Layer: AI Platforms & Tools
Sleeve: satellite
Urgency: THIS_WEEK
Medium bearish on Datadog (AI Platforms & Tools, 25% AI revenue). Signal: -0.25.
Risk: High beta to tech selloff
WDAY SELL
Workday
Signal: -0.287
Conviction: medium
Target Weight: 1.43%
Layer: AI Applications
Sleeve: satellite
Urgency: THIS_WEEK
Medium bearish on Workday (AI Applications, 20% AI revenue). Signal: -0.29.
Risk: Valuation compression
TickerCompositeConviction DirectionDailyWeeklyQuarterly
LITE 0.326 medium long 0.402 0.664 0.000
MU 0.258 medium long 0.509 0.302 0.000
CRDO 0.222 low long 0.451 0.385 0.000
COHR 0.201 low long 0.350 0.370 0.000
GOOGL 0.182 low long 0.275 0.324 0.000
AVGO 0.173 low long 0.261 0.270 0.000
ANET 0.167 low long 0.097 0.381 0.000
AMKR 0.158 low long 0.191 0.343 0.000
VRT 0.153 low long 0.293 0.273 0.000
QCOM 0.145 none neutral 0.373 0.093 0.000
EQIX 0.140 none neutral 0.373 0.211 0.000
VST 0.131 none neutral 0.148 0.332 0.000
NVDA 0.125 none neutral 0.163 0.218 0.000
TSM 0.118 none neutral 0.388 0.114 0.000
ASML 0.110 none neutral 0.248 0.172 0.000
DLR 0.081 none neutral 0.095 0.168 0.000
NRG 0.075 none neutral 0.261 0.141 0.000
CEG 0.075 none neutral 0.225 0.149 0.000
PWR 0.060 none neutral 0.487 0.034 0.000
AME 0.044 none neutral 0.292 0.042 0.000
AMAT 0.041 none neutral 0.250 -0.025 0.000
LRCX 0.037 none neutral 0.212 -0.017 0.000
AMD 0.026 none neutral -0.272 0.341 0.000
KLAC 0.021 none neutral 0.129 -0.013 0.000
MP 0.016 none neutral 0.132 -0.012 0.000
ETN 0.011 none neutral -0.364 0.175 0.000
JNJ 0.011 none neutral 0.255 -0.066 0.000
CDNS 0.005 none neutral -0.216 0.142 0.000
SUMCO 0.003 none neutral 0.022 0.000 0.000
GOOGL_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
LTHM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
META_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
MSFT_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
MKSI -0.001 none neutral -0.031 0.012 0.000
ENTG -0.005 none neutral -0.045 0.005 0.000
INTC -0.006 none neutral 0.067 -0.082 0.000
JPM -0.009 none neutral 0.007 -0.029 0.000
CREE -0.016 none neutral 0.091 -0.103 0.000
VEEV -0.020 none neutral 0.215 -0.237 0.000
CAT -0.022 none neutral -0.002 -0.063 0.000
ARM -0.023 none neutral 0.208 -0.271 0.000
PLTR -0.023 none neutral 0.059 -0.136 0.000
META -0.027 none neutral -0.017 -0.063 0.000
DIS -0.033 none neutral 0.049 -0.115 0.000
AMZN -0.039 none neutral 0.118 -0.242 0.000
MRVL -0.042 none neutral -0.037 -0.089 0.000
UNH -0.056 none neutral -0.205 -0.072 0.000
ORCL -0.079 none neutral -0.659 0.148 0.000
EMR -0.084 none neutral -0.094 -0.214 0.000
SNPS -0.089 none neutral -0.227 -0.125 0.000
COREWEAVE -0.090 none neutral -0.172 -0.134 0.000
BBAI -0.098 none neutral 0.062 -0.452 0.000
CFLT -0.102 none neutral 0.014 -0.301 0.000
NOW -0.103 none neutral 0.073 -0.474 0.000
MSFT -0.118 none neutral -0.036 -0.312 0.000
ADSK -0.121 none neutral -0.196 -0.206 0.000
WMT -0.128 none neutral -0.150 -0.302 0.000
TSLA -0.138 none neutral -0.169 -0.274 0.000
CRWD -0.146 none neutral -0.330 -0.180 0.000
AI -0.163 low short 0.008 -0.474 0.000
CRM -0.178 low short -0.094 -0.442 0.000
SNOW -0.179 low short -0.122 -0.424 0.000
ESTC -0.190 low short -0.143 -0.441 0.000
MDB -0.197 low short -0.480 -0.220 0.000
PANW -0.231 low short -0.316 -0.435 0.000
DDOG -0.253 medium short -0.409 -0.432 0.000
WDAY -0.287 medium short -0.332 -0.582 0.000
TickerSleeveWeightSignalConvictionLayer
MU satellite 8.00% 0.258 medium CHIPS_ACCELERATORS
LITE satellite 7.20% 0.326 medium INFRASTRUCTURE
GOOGL tactical 2.58% 0.182 low CLOUD_COMPUTE
COHR tactical 1.66% 0.201 low INFRASTRUCTURE
CRDO tactical 1.48% 0.222 low INFRASTRUCTURE
AMKR tactical 1.46% 0.158 low SEMICONDUCTOR_MFG
AVGO tactical 1.43% 0.173 low CHIPS_ACCELERATORS
VRT tactical 1.34% 0.153 low INFRASTRUCTURE
ANET tactical 1.18% 0.167 low INFRASTRUCTURE
MDB tactical -1.56% -0.197 low AI_PLATFORMS_TOOLS
CRM tactical -1.69% -0.178 low AI_APPLICATIONS
SNOW tactical -1.69% -0.179 low AI_PLATFORMS_TOOLS
AI tactical -1.77% -0.163 low FOUNDATION_MODELS
ESTC tactical -1.78% -0.190 low AI_PLATFORMS_TOOLS
PANW tactical -2.43% -0.231 low AI_APPLICATIONS
DDOG satellite -5.83% -0.253 medium AI_PLATFORMS_TOOLS
WDAY satellite -7.20% -0.287 medium AI_APPLICATIONS
TickerSideCurrentTarget DeltaSharesCostSlippage ParticipationExecutableReason
MU buy 0.00% 8.00% +8.00% 190 $40.00 0.0 bps 0.0% yes rebalance
LITE buy 0.00% 7.20% +7.20% 106 $36.00 0.0 bps 0.0% yes rebalance
WDAY sell 0.00% -4.80% -4.80% 371 $24.00 0.0 bps 0.0% yes rebalance

Concentration

Total Positions
17
Top 5 Weight
30.8%
Top 10 Weight
40.2%
HHI
0.0241
Effective Positions
41.5

Geopolitical Risk

Taiwan Exposure
2.9%
China Sensitivity
1.4%
Risk Score
0.023

Volatility

Weighted Avg Vol
60.5%
Weighted Avg Beta
1.17

Bottleneck Exposure

Net Score
0.183
Beneficiary Weight
22.3%
Victim Weight
4.0%

Layer Exposure