Supply Chain Bottlenecks — Early Signal

Status: CRITICAL — severe disruption, immediate impact on lead times MODERATE — elevated stress, monitor closely NORMAL — within expected range

Severity Heatmap ?

HBM3e Supply

CRITICAL

Severity: 90%
Utilization: 98%
Lead Time Stress: +150%
Layer: CHIPS_ACCELERATORS

Beneficiaries: MU

Affected: NVDA AMD

SK Hynix and Micron ramping HBM3e; demand outstrips supply through 2026

TSMC CoWoS Packaging

CRITICAL

Severity: 85%
Utilization: 95%
Lead Time Stress: +100%
Layer: SEMICONDUCTOR_MFG

Beneficiaries: TSM AMKR

Affected: NVDA AMD AVGO

CoWoS capacity expanding 2x by end-2026 but still constrained

NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin GPUs

CRITICAL

Severity: 75%
Utilization: 92%
Lead Time Stress: +100%
Layer: CHIPS_ACCELERATORS

Beneficiaries: NVDA TSM

Affected: MSFT AMZN GOOGL META ORCL COREWEAVE

Blackwell fully allocated; Rubin sampling mid-2026

800G/1.6T Optical Transceivers

MODERATE

Severity: 70%
Utilization: 90%
Lead Time Stress: +100%
Layer: INFRASTRUCTURE

Beneficiaries: COHR LITE CRDO ANET

Affected: MSFT AMZN GOOGL META

800G transition underway; 1.6T ramping in 2H 2026

ASML High-NA EUV

MODERATE

Severity: 70%
Utilization: 100%
Lead Time Stress: +48%
Layer: SEMICONDUCTOR_MFG

Beneficiaries: ASML

Affected: TSM INTC

High-NA EUV tools limited to ~20/year; critical for 2nm/1.4nm

Data Center Power Capacity

MODERATE

Severity: 60%
Utilization: 88%
Lead Time Stress: +100%
Layer: INFRASTRUCTURE

Beneficiaries: VST CEG NRG VRT ETN

Affected: EQIX DLR

Grid interconnection queue 2+ years; nuclear PPAs signed at premium

Rare Earth Refining (non-China)

MILD

Severity: 25%
Utilization: 85%
Lead Time Stress: +100%
Layer: RAW_MATERIALS

Beneficiaries: MP

Affected: ENTG MKSI

Western refining capacity improving but still dependent on China

300mm Silicon Wafers

NORMAL

Severity: 15%
Utilization: 82%
Lead Time Stress: +33%
Layer: RAW_MATERIALS

Beneficiaries: SUMCO

Affected: TSM INTC

Wafer supply adequate for current demand; watching 2nm ramp