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Portfolio
AI Model Portfolio
Inception: 2026-02-24
NAV
$101724.57
Cash: $91125.95
Status
Active
37 snapshots
Last Updated
2026-10-05
Rebalances weekly
Strategy
Signal-Weighted
Paper-traded · No real capital

Performance

Total Return
+1.78%
Max Drawdown
-2.15%
Sharpe Ratio
1.47
Win Rate
44.1%
256 trades
Annualized
+2.94%
Alpha vs SPY
-10.01%
Alpha vs SOXX
-58.42%

Equity Curve

Profit & Loss Breakdown

Realized P&L
$1363.69
From closed trades
Unrealized P&L
$360.59
Open positions
Total P&L
$1724.28

Drawdown Analysis

Max Drawdown
-2.15%
2026-05-11 → 2026-08-24
Duration to Trough
105 days
Recovery
In drawdown
-0.63% from peak

Current Holdings

Ticker Weight Market Value
AMKR 0.1% $124.95
ASX 0.8% $852.59
AVGO 0.4% $373.68
CDNS 0.1% $110.50
COHU 0.8% $854.04
MCHP 0.4% $369.91
MSFT 0.4% $421.04
MU 1.9% $1956.73
NVDA 2.5% $2523.38
ONTO 0.7% $760.22
SNPS 0.1% $139.95
TER 0.7% $758.06
TSM 1.0% $984.33
AMAT 0.1% $128.68
KLAC 0.1% $125.06
ASML 0.1% $115.50

Layer Attribution

Layer Weight Positions Market Value P&L Return
Chips & Accelerators 5.1% 4 $5223.70 $107.20 +2.10%
Semiconductor Manufacturing 4.9% 11 $4953.88 $240.01 +5.09%
Cloud & Compute Platforms 0.4% 1 $421.04 $13.38 +3.28%

Recent Trades

Date Ticker Side Qty Price P&L Thesis
2026-10-05 MSFT SELL 4.50 $524.65 $72.69 Low bullish on Microsoft (Cloud & Compute Platforms, 30% AI revenue). Signal: +0
2026-10-05 AMD SELL 1.66 $631.12 $244.98 Low bullish on AMD (Chips & Accelerators, 45% AI revenue). Signal: +0.23.
2026-10-05 AVGO SELL 2.11 $362.15 $18.74 Low bullish on Broadcom (Chips & Accelerators, 40% AI revenue). Signal: +0.24.
2026-10-05 INTC SELL 5.02 $116.07 $94.21 Low bullish on Intel (Chips & Accelerators, 15% AI revenue). Signal: +0.22.
2026-10-05 ONTO SELL 1.71 $325.08 $61.68 Medium bullish on Onto Innovation (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 40% AI revenue).
2026-10-05 UNP SELL 1.94 $276.78 $13.06 Low bullish on Union Pacific (AI HALO Stocks, 3% AI revenue). Signal: +0.20.
2026-10-05 ASX SELL 11.22 $47.48 $40.94 Medium bullish on ASE Technology (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 35% AI revenue).
2026-10-05 DE_H SELL 0.74 $681.52 $-2.88 —
2026-10-05 TT SELL 0.91 $470.29 $16.17 —
2026-10-05 ANET SELL 1.81 $206.69 $1.99 —
2026-10-05 CARR SELL 6.52 $55.67 $-1.70 —
2026-10-05 CRDO SELL 1.20 $212.27 $29.67 —
2026-10-05 ARM SELL 0.51 $302.60 $31.08 —
2026-10-05 SNPS SELL 0.14 $487.98 $9.92 Low bullish on Synopsys (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 55% AI revenue). Signal: +
2026-10-05 AMKR SELL 1.00 $54.58 $1.35 Low bullish on Amkor Technology (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 45% AI revenue). S
2026-10-05 CDNS SELL 0.13 $353.13 $3.27 Low bullish on Cadence Design (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 50% AI revenue). Sig
2026-10-05 NVDA BUY 5.34 $239.14 — Medium bullish on NVIDIA (Chips & Accelerators, 85% AI revenue). Signal: +0.32.
2026-10-05 MU BUY 0.87 $1065.02 — Medium bullish on Micron Technology (Chips & Accelerators, 35% AI revenue). Sign
2026-10-05 TSM BUY 1.55 $486.29 — Medium bullish on TSMC (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 50% AI revenue). Signal: +0
2026-10-05 COHU BUY 8.68 $73.80 — Medium bullish on Cohu (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 25% AI revenue). Signal: +0

Biggest Lessons

Largest losing trades — understanding what went wrong improves future decisions.

Date Ticker Loss Thesis Key Risk
2026-06-08 PLTR $-310.76 — —
2026-07-13 COHU $-227.09 — —
2026-07-13 TER $-209.36 — —
2026-06-08 ANET $-202.29 — —
2026-06-08 SNOW $-199.40 Low bullish on Snowflake (AI Platforms & Tools, 35% AI reven High beta to tech selloff

Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trades are simulated using historical closing prices with estimated slippage.

How This Portfolio Works

This is a paper-traded model portfolio — no real capital is at risk. All trades are simulated using historical closing prices with estimated slippage and commissions.

  • Positions are sized using Early Signal's quantitative signal engine with core/satellite/tactical sleeves.
  • Rebalancing occurs weekly after each weekly analysis run completes.
  • Performance metrics are calculated from actual simulated fills, not hypothetical signal returns.
  • NAV snapshots capture end-of-day valuations including cash, unrealized P&L, and realized gains/losses.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance of this model portfolio does not guarantee future results. See Terms of Service for full disclaimers.