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AI Model Portfolio

Paper-traded portfolio driven by Early Signal's quantitative analysis engine. All trades are simulated using historical closing prices with estimated slippage — no real capital is at risk.

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Historical replay Replay spans 2026-02-25 to 2026-03-05 using archived weekly runs and historical close-based fills with estimated slippage.
Live paper trading has continued from 2026-03-09 onward.
Portfolio
AI Model Portfolio
Inception: 2026-02-24
NAV
$99092.18
Cash: $89943.65
Status
Active
12 snapshots
Last Updated
2026-04-06
Rebalances weekly
Strategy
Signal-Weighted
Paper-traded · No real capital

Performance

Total Return
-0.86%
Max Drawdown
-1.87%
Win Rate
22.6%
93 trades
Alpha vs SPY
+4.08%
Alpha vs SOXX
+5.64%

Equity Curve

Profit & Loss Breakdown

Realized P&L
$-883.20
From closed trades
Unrealized P&L
$-24.91
Open positions
Total P&L
$-908.11

Drawdown Analysis

Max Drawdown
-1.87%
2026-03-02 → 2026-03-30
Duration to Trough
28 days
Recovery
In drawdown
-1.61% from peak

Current Holdings

Ticker Weight Market Value
COHR 0.9% $909.79
EQIX 1.5% $1527.88
AMD 1.5% $1516.82
ANET 1.3% $1294.74
NUE 1.2% $1175.22
AMKR 1.2% $1158.65
UNP 1.0% $954.56
LITE 0.6% $610.87

Layer Attribution

Layer Weight Positions Market Value P&L Return
Infrastructure 4.4% 4 $4343.28 $-20.01 -0.46%
AI HALO Stocks 2.1% 2 $2129.78 $-2.15 -0.10%
Chips & Accelerators 1.5% 1 $1516.82 $-1.52 -0.10%
Semiconductor Manufacturing 1.2% 1 $1158.65 $-1.23 -0.11%

Recent Trades

Date Ticker Side Qty Price P&L Thesis
2026-04-06 MRVL SELL 7.92 $109.40 $170.34 —
2026-04-06 SO SELL 6.72 $96.84 $-1.28 —
2026-04-06 ARM SELL 3.98 $148.62 $46.11 —
2026-04-06 EQIX BUY 1.50 $1017.10 — Low bullish on Equinix (Infrastructure, 35% AI revenue). Signal: +0.15.
2026-04-06 AMD BUY 6.89 $220.40 — Low bullish on AMD (Chips & Accelerators, 45% AI revenue). Signal: +0.23.
2026-04-06 ANET BUY 10.26 $126.38 — Low bullish on Arista Networks (Infrastructure, 55% AI revenue). Signal: +0.16.
2026-04-06 NUE BUY 6.93 $169.76 — Low bullish on Nucor Corp (AI HALO Stocks, 2% AI revenue). Signal: +0.22.
2026-04-06 AMKR BUY 24.64 $47.08 — Low bullish on Amkor Technology (Semiconductor Manufacturing, 45% AI revenue). S
2026-04-06 UNP BUY 3.89 $245.79 — Low bullish on Union Pacific (AI HALO Stocks, 3% AI revenue). Signal: +0.17.
2026-04-06 LITE BUY 0.79 $773.05 — Low bullish on Lumentum (Infrastructure, 30% AI revenue). Signal: +0.16.
2026-04-06 COHR BUY 1.93 $253.47 — Low bullish on Coherent Corp (Infrastructure, 40% AI revenue). Signal: +0.17.
2026-03-30 LIN SELL 1.41 $498.76 $10.61 —
2026-03-30 ETN SELL 1.80 $343.19 $-30.45 —
2026-03-30 MU SELL 1.76 $321.48 $-172.85 —
2026-03-30 AMD SELL 2.60 $195.84 $-18.30 —
2026-03-30 ANET SELL 3.06 $116.01 $-71.08 —
2026-03-30 LITE SELL 0.51 $654.14 $10.66 —
2026-03-30 COHR SELL 0.25 $219.43 $-10.94 Low bullish on Coherent Corp (Infrastructure, 40% AI revenue). Signal: +0.16.
2026-03-30 ARM SELL 0.16 $136.82 $-0.03 Low bullish on Arm Holdings (Chips & Accelerators, 30% AI revenue). Signal: +0.1
2026-03-30 MRVL BUY 7.92 $87.90 — Low bullish on Marvell Technology (Chips & Accelerators, 45% AI revenue). Signal

Biggest Lessons

Largest losing trades — understanding what went wrong improves future decisions.

Date Ticker Loss Thesis Key Risk
2026-03-30 MU $-172.85 — —
2026-03-03 CRDO $-148.03 — —
2026-02-26 GOOGL $-141.38 Medium bullish on Alphabet (GCP) (Cloud & Compute Platforms, Valuation compression
2026-03-02 AMKR $-91.55 — —
2026-03-04 LITE $-88.61 Low bullish on Lumentum (Infrastructure, 30% AI revenue). Si Valuation compression

Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trades are simulated using historical closing prices with estimated slippage.

How This Portfolio Works

This is a paper-traded model portfolio — no real capital is at risk. All trades are simulated using historical closing prices with estimated slippage and commissions.

  • Positions are sized using Early Signal's quantitative signal engine with core/satellite/tactical sleeves.
  • Rebalancing occurs weekly after each weekly analysis run completes.
  • Historical replay fills were backfilled using archived run signals and actual closing prices — not optimized or cherry-picked.
  • Performance metrics are calculated from actual simulated fills, not hypothetical signal returns.
  • NAV snapshots capture end-of-day valuations including cash, unrealized P&L, and realized gains/losses.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance of this model portfolio does not guarantee future results. See Terms of Service for full disclaimers.