Early Signal | AI Portfolio

Summary

Risk Outlook
NEUTRAL
Macro Thesis
Mixed signals across the AI ecosystem. Selective positioning recommended.
Num Entries
1
Num Exits
0
Used Synthetic Data
False
Data Warnings
[]

Narrative

# Quarterly AI Ecosystem Strategy - Q1 2026

## Macro Thesis

Mixed signals across the AI ecosystem. Selective positioning recommended.

**Risk Outlook:** NEUTRAL

## Strategic Shifts
- Increase allocation to Semiconductor Manufacturing (signal: +0.254)
- Increase allocation to Infrastructure (signal: +0.261)
- Increase allocation to Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries (signal: +0.317)

## Layer Allocation

| Layer | Signal | Direction | Max Allocation |
|-------|--------|-----------|----------------|
| Raw Materials & Components | +0.152 | MAINTAIN | 8% |
| Semiconductor Manufacturing | +0.254 | INCREASE | 15% |
| Chips & Accelerators | +0.179 | MAINTAIN | 18% |
| Infrastructure | +0.261 | INCREASE | 15% |
| Cloud & Compute Platforms | +0.161 | MAINTAIN | 18% |
| AI Platforms & Tools | +0.018 | MAINTAIN | 12% |
| Foundation Models & AI Services | +0.059 | MAINTAIN | 15% |
| AI Applications | +0.051 | MAINTAIN | 15% |
| AI-Enabled Transformation | +0.082 | MAINTAIN | 12% |
| Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries | +0.317 | INCREASE | 10% |

## New Strategic Entries
- **NRG** (NRG Energy): High bullish on NRG Energy (Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries, 10% AI revenue). Signal: +0.51.
NRG BUY
NRG Energy
Signal: 0.506
Conviction: high
Target Weight: 2.53%
Layer: Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries
Sleeve: core
Urgency: THIS_WEEK
High bullish on NRG Energy (Secondary / Tertiary Beneficiaries, 10% AI revenue). Signal: +0.51.
Risk: AI theme derating
TickerCompositeConviction DirectionDailyWeeklyQuarterly
NRG 0.506 high long 0.260 0.141 0.783
GOOGL 0.496 medium long 0.271 0.324 0.788
AMKR 0.435 medium long 0.191 0.343 0.614
ENTG 0.431 medium long -0.044 0.005 0.873
MU 0.419 medium long 0.507 0.302 0.459
ASML 0.412 medium long 0.295 0.172 0.651
TSM 0.408 medium long 0.424 0.114 0.630
ANET 0.397 medium long 0.094 0.381 0.513
AME 0.395 medium long 0.291 0.042 0.639
VST 0.390 medium long 0.147 0.332 0.471
LITE 0.377 medium long 0.434 0.664 0.103
CEG 0.341 medium long 0.224 0.149 0.484
AMAT 0.338 medium long 0.248 -0.025 0.661
CRDO 0.323 medium long 0.450 0.385 0.224
QCOM 0.306 medium long 0.371 0.093 0.463
PLTR 0.252 medium long 0.059 -0.136 0.983
ETN 0.241 low long -0.278 0.175 0.703
VRT 0.226 low long 0.292 0.273 0.162
EMR 0.215 low long -0.094 -0.214 0.712
AVGO 0.213 low long 0.257 0.270 0.117
KLAC 0.209 low long 0.127 -0.013 0.418
CREE 0.206 low long 0.091 -0.103 0.633
LRCX 0.205 low long 0.210 -0.017 0.376
EQIX 0.201 low long 0.372 0.211 0.135
DLR 0.192 low long 0.092 0.168 0.246
COHR 0.180 low long 0.349 0.370 -0.046
CDNS 0.173 low long -0.219 0.142 0.536
AMD 0.166 low long -0.274 0.341 0.573
NVDA 0.164 low long 0.161 0.218 0.113
COREWEAVE 0.160 low long -0.176 -0.134 0.800
MKSI 0.155 low long -0.031 0.012 0.311
DIS 0.144 none neutral 0.048 -0.115 0.477
UNH 0.135 none neutral -0.205 -0.072 0.497
PWR 0.131 none neutral 0.486 0.034 0.129
MP 0.117 none neutral 0.130 -0.012 0.204
MRVL 0.115 none neutral -0.037 -0.089 0.588
JPM 0.114 none neutral 0.005 -0.029 0.246
ORCL 0.106 none neutral -0.659 0.148 0.659
META 0.096 none neutral -0.020 -0.063 0.412
WMT 0.089 none neutral -0.152 -0.302 0.512
DDOG 0.087 none neutral -0.410 -0.432 0.945
AMZN 0.070 none neutral 0.117 -0.242 0.389
INTC 0.055 none neutral 0.104 -0.082 0.219
CAT 0.054 none neutral -0.064 -0.063 0.217
SNPS 0.052 none neutral -0.228 -0.125 0.363
VEEV 0.046 none neutral 0.213 -0.237 0.236
MSFT 0.040 none neutral -0.040 -0.312 0.440
JNJ 0.028 none neutral 0.253 -0.066 0.049
ADSK 0.014 none neutral -0.222 -0.206 0.370
TSLA 0.012 none neutral -0.170 -0.274 0.389
SUMCO 0.003 none neutral 0.021 0.000 0.000
GOOGL_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
LTHM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
META_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
MSFT_FM 0.000 none neutral 0.000 0.000 0.000
ARM -0.002 none neutral 0.205 -0.271 0.087
CRWD -0.032 none neutral -0.347 -0.180 0.259
CFLT -0.032 none neutral 0.014 -0.301 0.139
PANW -0.043 none neutral -0.319 -0.435 0.427
NOW -0.048 none neutral 0.070 -0.474 0.198
SNOW -0.052 none neutral -0.094 -0.424 0.244
BBAI -0.079 none neutral 0.060 -0.452 0.078
ESTC -0.083 none neutral -0.142 -0.441 0.180
MDB -0.088 none neutral -0.480 -0.220 0.180
CRM -0.088 none neutral -0.094 -0.442 0.132
AI -0.091 none neutral 0.007 -0.474 0.096
WDAY -0.098 none neutral -0.330 -0.582 0.366